It took visits on Christmas Eve from spirits of Christmas Past, Present and Future for Scrooge, of Charles Dickens’ A Christmas Carol, to face up to his moral responsibilities. I wish those ghosts had spent a little more time with America’s billionaires.

One in seven children live in poverty in the U.S., 11 of 74 million. One in eight US households were food insecure at some point in 2022 and those numbers probably have not changed. 735 billionaires collectively have $4.5 trillion. If you thought the wealth gap between Ebenezer Scrooge and Bob Cratchit was vast in “A Christmas Carol,” the difference between the haves and have-nots in 2023 would be enough to make Charles Dickens’ head spin.

What’s happening, quite simply, is that the ultra-rich are neither paying sufficient taxes nor fulfilling their charitable responsibilities, leaving overall social investment–to alleviate poverty, address climate disruption, protect democracy, provide economic opportunity and promote shared prosperity–in a very deep hole.

Last year we issued a set of predictions that, had they come to pass, would have begun to address this problem from a philanthropic perspective. It was not a good year. So let’s try again. Herewith are my eleven Crisis Charitable Commitment Predictions for 2024 (in no particular order):

  1. At a national convening of Donor-Advised-Fund (DAF) Sponsors, to avoid impending, bipartisan legislation requiring a minimum 15% distribution for all DAFs, a resolution is passed to require a minimum 10% distribution.
  2. X goes out of business and followers turn en masse to factual and reliable media to inform their opinions.
  3. Speaking of facts, Stephen Colbert’s admonition that “facts are overrated because facts change but people’s opinions never do” is proved not factual.
  4. In national surveys conducted independently by 4 different polling organizations, the public overwhelmingly agrees that billionaires are a harmful policy failure (even if some are better than others, and even if some give some fraction of their billions to amazing nonprofit organizations), leading to…
  5. The Chronicle of Philanthropy discontinues its Philanthropy 50 list that glorifies billionaire philanthropists.
  6. The Giving Pledge, where signers had promised to give away 50% of their wealth, is left with only one member–MacKenzie Scott. The Giving Pledge changes its rules so that the money must be given away during the lifetime of the donor and it must go to an active charity (not a private foundation or donor-advised fund).
  7. Plans to build in Washington, D.C. a national monument to billionaires (who as a group provided most of the money to get members of Congress elected) are scuttled in response to overwhelming public outrage and instead create a monument to honor donors who meet the CCC’s Charitable Standard.
  8. A Charitable Tax Reform package – that reduces the charitable tax benefits for the ultra-rich and passes those benefits down to the middle class – is passed in the House but can’t overcome the filibuster in the Senate, making Republican Senator Charles Grassley and Senators Manchin and Sinema so angry they demand an end to the filibuster rules.
  9. 1000 nonprofit organizations demonstrate their “bite-the-hand-that-feeds-it” courage by signing a letter calling for an increase in the payout requirements for foundations and DAFs and a reduction in the charitable tax  benefits for the ultra-rich.
  10. There is a surge in ultra-rich donors and private foundations who place the interests of their grantees ahead of their own.
  11. The Crisis Charitable Commitment recognition program for donors and private foundations who give at a higher level as a percentage of their wealth surpasses 200 signers and $2 billion in charitable contributions.

We’ll check in next year and see how I did!